Tópico: Por que não haverá recessão...

[Rodion]

com vocês, o diretor da comissão orçamentária do congresso americano;
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/01/23/why-we-wont-have-a-recession-the-cbo-view/

Why We Won’t Have a Recession: The CBO View

Peter Orszag, director of the Congressional Budget Office, testified before Congress Wednesday on the agency’s economic and budget outlook.
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Orszag

“Although recent data suggest that the probability of a recession in 2008 has increased, CBO does not expect the slowdown in economic growth to be large enough to register as a recession, the agency said. It forecasts 1.7% growth in calendar year 2008 versus 2.2% in 2007.

Here’s why, according to Orszag:
# The three-month moving average unemployment has now risen by 0.4 percentage points relative to the same period last year, which has only and always occurred in conjunction with a recession over the past three decades.
# On the other hand, other measures that typically have accompanied that large an increase in the unemployment rate at the onset of a recession – such as a steep rise in unemployment insurance claims – have not as yet occurred. Indeed, initial UI claims have recently ticked down just a bit.
# Especially with the most recent and notable action by the Federal Reserve yesterday, many professional forecasters are projecting continued — albeit sluggish — economic growth in 2008, rather than an outright recession.
# One bright spot to date, reinforcing the view of continued but slow growth rather than recession, has been net exports

As for the federal deficit:

Our baseline – which assumes no change in current law — suggests that among other factors, the slowing economy will boost the deficit to $219 billion, or 1.5 percent of GDP, this year. If Congress provides the additional funding for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan requested by the Administration, the deficit would rise to $250 billion. And if a fiscal stimulus package is enacted, the 2008 deficit could be substantially higher – and at least from a short-term stimulus perspective, that could be desirable. The fiscal 2007 deficit was $163 billion, or 1.2% of GDP.

o blog dele aqui:
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/