I read today that the Irish bookmakers, Paddy Power, are giving 7-2 odds on Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze as the front-runner, so Poindexter may be right.
They are also giving 3-1 odds that the next pope will take the name of Benedict.
Interesting trivia:
Twenty-nine conclaves have lasted a month or more, but in recent years, they've got shorter. The last conclave to go more than five days was 54 days in 1831. The longest conclave of the 20th century was five days in 1922, when Pius XI was elected after 15 ballots.
The shortest conclave was the one that elected Pius XII in 1939 in less than 24 hours, although Julius II's conclave in 1503 must be a close contender. He bought the papacy with massive bribes, and banned simony -- the word for buying or selling ecclesiastical positions -- two years later.